Huadian International (600027): Multi-dimensional view of the configuration value of thermal power faucet
The company’s installed area has significant advantages in layout, multi-factor trends are improving, and profitability can be significantly improved. As of the end of 2018, the company’s holding installed capacity was 51.57 million kilowatts, and thermal power accounted for nearly 90%. The overall continued decline continued, and most units were distributed inElectricity, thermal load center area.
The provinces (Shandong, Hubei, Anhui, etc.) where the company’s thermal power units are evenly distributed have better power supply and demand sizes, and the volume and price of power generation business are rising.
Since this year, the government has accelerated the examination and approval of coal production capacity, promoted the release of high-quality production capacity, the coal supply and demand pattern has continued to improve, and the coal price season is not busy.
Although it is not ruled out that the government may introduce measures to stabilize coal prices, such as restricting imported coal or increasing the safety supervision of coal mines, but considering that coal inventories at power plants and ports have reached record highs, macroeconomic operations continue to be weak, and the daily consumption of power plants is difficult to recover.
It is expected that the market price of coal will continue to fall further, significantly reducing 深圳SPA会所 the fuel cost of enterprises, and a significant improvement in earnings is expected.
The value of thermal power allocation is prominent, and Huadian International’s allocation opportunities are optimistic from multiple perspectives: reorganization, the recent increase in the market’s frictions on international trade frictions and the decline in macroeconomics, to avoid serious dangers, and the defense target is favored by the market.
At present the company PB is only 0.
93. Considering that the profitability of thermal power can improve the channel, PB repair and ROE can be expected, the company is expected to show alternative defense attributes at the current point in time.
At the same time, the company’s units are mainly distributed in the center of electric heating load, the supply and demand pattern is good, and the flexibility of coal prices and utilization hours ranks first.
At the same time, the company is expected to benefit directly from the commissioning of the Menghua Railway. The scale and scope of the sub-units ‘over-par power prices are not large, and the risk of subsequent reductions in on-grid power prices is manageable.
The company’s cash flow is good. Under the background of the government’s strict control of additional installed capacity, subsequent capital expenditures are reduced, continuous dividends are guaranteed, and the distribution rate is worth looking forward to.
Electricity reform is steadily progressing, and the risk of lowering electricity prices is small, which will benefit large-scale thermal power enterprises in the long run: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the “Notice on Fully Liberating Electricity Generation Plans for Operating Power Consumers”, stating that it is necessary to fully liberalize operating power.Users issue power plans, support small and medium-sized users to participate in market-based transactions, and improve the price formation mechanism after comprehensive development and development of power plans.
Considering that the notice does not have a clear scheduled time for fully liberalizing the development of electricity consumption plans, core issues such as clean energy consumption and market-based electricity prices have not yet been resolved, and it is expected that it will not be fully advanced in the short term.
In the medium and long term, marketization will be further liberalized, and the “base price + floating price” mechanism will occupy a place. The increase in the correlation between electricity prices and coal prices will help improve the cash flow and profitability of power generation companies, and also help break throughPerformance fluctuations.
Market-based competition tends to be fierce, large-scale units with high capacity, environmental protection and expected standards and low quotations have core competitiveness.
Investment suggestion: Overweight-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 5.
We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 5 in 2019-2021.
5%, net profit was 35.
2 billion, 45.
2 billion, 53.
300 million, optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s performance.
Risk Warning: The growth of electricity consumption in the whole society is less than expected; coal continues to run at a high level; and the downside risk of on-grid electricity prices.